For CTO · CIO · Platform VP

Cloud Replatform ROI.

"It'll pay for itself" is an opinion. This is the arithmetic. Six inputs produce a 3-year NPV, payback period, and a Go/Wait/Toss-up verdict. Lift-and-shift / Refactor / Rebuild mode toggle adjusts the productivity-uplift and risk-premium assumptions per approach.

Your inputs

Slide each one. NPV + payback + verdict update live.

Current annual run-rate (USD)On-prem TCO: hardware depreciation + facility + ops staff + maintenance contracts.

Target cloud annual run-rate (USD)Compute + storage + egress + managed-service premiums + cloud-ops headcount.

Migration project cost (USD)Migration SI + your team's time + parallel-run + data migration. One-time.

Annual productivity uplift (USD)Faster deploys, fewer incidents, dev time saved. Often the most-claimed and least-measured number. Be honest.

Project risk premium (% over project cost)0% = drop-in lift-and-shift · 50%+ = high uncertainty. 25

Discount rate for NPV (%)Your cost of capital. Public co ~7–10% · PE-backed ~10–14% · startup ~15–20%. 10

3-year verdict

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NPV waterfall

−Project, then 3 years of discounted savings.

Cumulative cash flow + payback

48-month projection. Payback marker shows break-even.

Sensitivity tornado

Each row shows how the result changes if you perturb that input. Bigger bar = more sensitive.

Move improves NPV Move worsens NPV

The math, openly

Annual savings = (current − target) + (productivity × modeMult)

Risk-adjusted project = (project × modeMult) × (1 + risk% × modeRiskMult)

3-year NPV = −riskProject + Σ(savings / (1+disc)^year) for years 1..3

Payback months = riskProject / (savings / 12)

Verdict: Go if NPV>0 AND payback≤24mo · Wait if NPV<0 OR payback>36mo · Toss-up otherwise.

Refactor mode (default)Productivity × 1.0 · Risk × 1.0 · Project × 1.0. Balanced — modernize as you migrate.

Lift-and-shift modeProductivity × 0.5 · Risk × 0.6. Fastest path, lowest risk, minimal cloud-native benefit.

Rebuild modeProductivity × 1.5 · Risk × 1.6 · Project × 1.4. Maximum cloud-native; maximum risk + cost.

If productivity uplift dominates the NPV, ask "how do we measure that?" The most-quoted and least-measured input.